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Today Wizards of the Coast kicks off the sale of their Summer Super Drop. The sale will start at 9am PST and continue through the week. There are five individual drops which will be available for 24 hours each day. The bundle will include all five drops and a bonus Fetchland! It will be available from the 1st until the 15th. You can find more detailed information about the drops here. Let’s jump into the analysis.

Should I Buy This?

This is the big question. My aim is to give you the tools needed to answer that question for yourself. When buying something, I let two questions guide my thinking; “What’s the floor?”  and “What do the numbers say?”

The Floor

As Magic players we have a habit of only looking at the best-case scenario. This can color our purchasing decisions and lead to bad beats. That’s why I like to look at the worst-case scenario- “If I have to sell this tomorrow, what does that look like?”

Typically, this means looking at buylist numbers, but currently there are no buylist offers. So instead, I looked at the lowest value of the non-Secret Lair (SL) versions of the cards. For example, when evaluating the new Walking Ballista, I took the price for the non-foil Aether Revolt version. This should give us a good floor. It’s unlikely that the Secret Lair versions will drop below their normal set counterparts. I’ll admit it is not a perfect method, but it will do the job.

The Numbers

The other numbers that I will reference is the current asking prices of the Secret Lair singles. I don’t put too much stock in these numbers becasue sellers are testing the market and the hype is high right now. As you can see in the spreadsheet many of these singles don’t have any sales to support their asking price. I checked TCG Player previously sold, and ebay closed listings for data points. I expect many of these prices to trend downward until they find their place in the market. With all that being said, I still think the data is relevant for your decision making so I included it.

The Breakdown

To see the full spreadsheet click here.

Based on this, the only drop that looks serviceable to me is “Mountain, Go!”. It’s the only one that does not have a negative worse-case scenario number. This could be because it’s also the only one where I used a foil version (The MagicFest Promo) as a comp. I was using Revised, but, as Eric Landes pointed out, the GP promo is a closer analog and I agree. The next best drop based is “Can you feel with a heart of steel?”. It shows a negative worst-case scenario number but it’s a small one. With three pretty solid cards, the risk that the bottom will drop out on this one is low.

When looking at the “SL Version” column, it would appear that all the drops are a “win”. This is not the case. Remember these prices still have to settle. Also keep in mind, due to inflated prices, this number favors the drops with more cards, like “Full Sleeves” and “Ornithological Studies”. That’s why I like looking at the set prices to get an idea of where things may settle.

Before we move on to the verdict, it may be helpful to know that the worst drop, by both models, is “The Path Not Traveled“. If this was the one you where hyped about, I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

The Verdict

I’m not a fan of buying any of these as a one-off, but buying the bundle looks good to me. This is thanks to the bonus fetchland that comes with the bundle. On the sheet, I’ve averaged the price of the fetchland, but even using the worst-case scenario number with an Arid Mesa is a break even. Since the worse-case scenario is a break-even it gives you so many opportunities to gain value. If you open any other fetch land besides an Arid Mesa, or if you get the asking price for any of the singles, you’ll gain value!

I know that I took the long way around, but I hope in the end it helped you get a view of how I approach buying. I’m conservative, but in this market, that’s a good thing. I did my best to give you the numbers, and some ways to think about this drop. In the end, you have to do what makes you happy. If you want to buy a copy of “The Path Not Traveled” for your Commander decks, go for it!

Thank you for reading, and thank you so much for your support.

< 3 JM

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